21st Century Food Crisis?

Just under a year ago I was working in the national procurement department of a large food company. The big buzz in the office at that time was the significant escalation in price of many of the inputs: from wheat to dairy to corn to apple juice to vitamin C. For some ingredients, such price increases would impact the company's costs by over a billion dollars each. However, what struck me the most at the time was how a lot of old-timers (several of which had over a decade of experience in food procurement of all kinds) claimed that they had never seen such high price increases across the board ever in their careers. Since that time, the issue has only exacerbated: by the end of summer high dairy prices in supermarkets hit the headlines all across America, and we continued to see food prices rise. By March and April there were riots across the world (Haiti, Cameroon - where 24 people were killed, Indonesia, Egypt, and China, among others) by the masses who saw much of their staples such as rice increase by as much as 141% (BBC article).

BBC has a page, "The cost of food: Facts and Figures" which graphically illustrates well the consensus that world food prices have drastically been raised (and the reasons why), and that this seems to be a relatively long-standing change as opposed to a short-term cyclical event. Below are a few of the best graphs from the page:

So who has and will be hurt most? Undeniably this would be the world's poor, who spend most (if not all) of their disposable income on food - in the developing parts of Asia, over a billion people have been seriously affected by the food price surge (Kuroda WSJ article). Rice, the main staple of Asia, illustrates best the price surge effects. For a country-by-country breakdown of rice production, consumption, and costs, visit this BBC page here.

There has been a plethora of detailed articles and informed analysis published in recent weeks (see links below), and many issues are brought up. The drivers for the price increase are usually agreed upon and are as follows: rising demand for both grains and meat as millions of Chinese and Indians join the middle class, ambitious western biofuel programs which drive up the price of corn and cereals, hoarding, rising fuel costs (in transporting food), a not-so-great year of weather (especially in Australia which produces much of the world's wheat), and extensive market distortions in the form of subsidies/quotas/disincentives. However, there is great debate over these drivers and the extent to which they truly have caused the "food crisis."

But perhaps the most debated issue is also the most critical: what should be done to 'solve' this problem. For the very first entry of TechPov, I talked about the Green Revolution in the 1960's and 1970's, where agricultural tech advances helped improve yields to feed a seemingly out-of-control, exploding population. It seems history has come full circle so that we again are at a point in which demand seems to exceed supply, and disastrous results are not only imminent but unavoidable. In my research, there were dozens of explanations and solutions, however what interested me most were the following two contrasting angles:

1. There is no shortage, the real problem is in the systems in place.

Even if one allows for rising demand from Asia's middle classes, the real challenge is not the volume of food available; it is the problem of food being in the wrong place and at a price the poorest cannot afford (Economist).

Solution: We need to fix both the distribution and food aid systems (most notably the odd monetization that often occurs, improve the delivery of nutrients in the food chain, educate about hygenie, and target subsides/vouchers in 'ways that complement markets rather than distort them '(Economist article).

2. There is a supply problem, we need to invest in more technologies.

"Absolutely, science is going to play a key role," said Kent Bradford, director of the Seed Biotechnology Center at the University of California, Davis. "The fact is that the reason we have been able to have food and [have] not had these shortages for the last 40 years is in fact the green revolution and the technologies that went with it. If we are really going to make a quantum leap, raise the yield thresholds significantly, then probably biotechnology is going to help." (Moskowitz 1)

Solution: More or less, we need to have a 'Second Green Revolution'. The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) in the Philippines, one of the major contributors to the first Green Revolution, just today called for a nine-point program to deal with the problem and prevent a future crisis from happening. The IRRI's proposed solution of increasing investment and research with the 'committed support of donors and policymakers [and] better awareness among the media and general public of the problems we face' not only continues but builds on all the technologies and advancements that the 1st Green Revolution provided. The difference this time, however, would be that we would see much more of a trend towards biotechnology, as opposed to simple changes in agricultural practices (which made a huge difference in the first time around). An article by Clara Moskowitz at Foxnews.com goes into good details about how many scientists really see GMO foods as the answer to the food crisis. It the article, Moskowitz touches upon several works-in-progress, such as making the protein in grain sorghum (a big crop in Africa) more efficiently digestable and even the potential for making an animal-free meat (also see this Popular Science article for details). Rather than get grossed out or have rather irrational fears against GMOs (which were mentioned by Moskowitz - it is a Fox news outlet, after all), its important to realize that if ideas such as they come to fruition, they could well represent a new paradigm in food production which would highly benefit those who are poor not only because of their lowered cost but because of their nutritional content.

In the months that I have been writing this blog, I have not once ceased to be amazed at the real and momentous impact that technology has been shown to have on millions of lives all around the world. This entry only furthers the notion that the acceptance of and investment in technology is not only extremely influential in alleviating, combating, and preventing poverty, but also absolutely critical.

Articles of interest not mentioned in the entry:
Economist - The Silent Tsunami
Economist - The New Face of Hunger
WSJ - Africa Does Not Have to Starve (by Norman Borlaug)
BBC Special Report - Assessing the Global Food Crisis
Nancy Pelosi Statement on Global Food Crisis